Thursday, 3 February 2011
A Google Earth Analysis of the Tactial Situation in Cairo, 2 Feb
The analysis I created was using Google Earth, my own Experience with Cairo just a month ago, watching AlJazeera and a New York Times graphic
Above the deployment of the two groups. The Mubarak thugs were heavily dependent up logistical support to bring in and organize. So they needed to organize behind the Cairo Museum, where they have access to roads.
But in a battle of stones and sticks the Mubarak supporters were initially deployed at the low ground. The Anti-Mubarak forces had higher ground and a better view and better position to fight a hand to hand battle. Anti-Mubarak forces could attack down hill, they could throw stones further.
Front the start the Mubarak thugs were at significant tactical disadvantage. Firstly they were in lower ground. They had to come from here because they needed to keep open roads clear to the area in the North where elite live. But his bottle necked them between the Cairo Museum and high rises. Coming up the bottle neck they had to charge up hill.
Their only hope would have been a rapid surprise attack to take the square. Once the demonstrators stopped the Mubarak thugs and the battle formed in the bottle neck between Cario Museum and high buildings the "battle" was essentially lost.
The one major weakness of the Pro-Democracy position is the high buildings around the Square. It is clear that Mubarak forces took some of these roofs and used them to throw on the people. But by night a massive green laser was deployed in the Square and being used to blind Mubarak's forces on the buildings.
Without heavier arms this situation will inevitably flow in favor of the people. They have more forces, are more motivated, and hold the high ground. So in the coming days Mubaraks last hand to play may be a rise of violence and use of armed forces.
Almost certainly when they
Rober1236 Jua the Cyber Trekker of Second Life